Northern Virginia Unstoppable Market

The real estate market has been softening nationwide. For years, most of the DC Area used to be an extremely competitive area in which to buy a home. But take a new President, add some government layoffs and the result is a loss of consumer confidence about the future. Some parts of the metro DC Area are no longer experiencing the same furious pace of sales. Living in Northern Virginia and buying homes in Northern Virginia historically managed to remain in high demand throughout the ups and downs. How are the cities and counties of Northern Virginia doing now and how can you use this information to your advantage?

You know how you cook something in a microwave and some parts of it are super-hot and then other parts are still frozen? Think of the DC Metro Real Estate Market like that. And drilling down, also think of the Northern Virginia real estate market like that too. There are some areas that have cooled off and other places where there are still multiple offers. It’s too bad we can’t stir it all up to even it out like you can with microwavable food but a nuanced market like this provides some interesting opportunity. 

This is all important to note because there are naysayers out there who think this is Realtor-hype. I give it to you straight every single video, week after week, year after year. I’m not here for hype. There has been a very real impact on the real estate market here, but it hasn’t affected all areas, and it hasn’t affected all price points.

McLean, Vienna and Falls Church Home Prices Still Rising

There are close-in areas that are still happily rocking and rolling. Vienna and McLean, I’m looking at you. Clients of mine recently experienced a bidding war for the most average property in McLean. It needed work! It needed updates! It needed love! They went well over asking and they didn’t get it. 

For single family homes, the 22102 zip code in McLean is up 4% over last year in price, with a median closed price just over $2M. Condos are also up – surprise! Prices are up 12% over last year with a median closed price of $470,000. 

Vienna’s median price for single family homes is up 10%, now standing at $1.3M. Bidding wars are still common in Vienna. Many buyers are clamoring to get a home here because of the schools and the small-town feel. 

Falls Church single family home sales are also up 6% over last year, to a median price of $973,000. 

The stats don’t always tell stories that make sense and trying to understand what’s happening is not completely clear. Why prices are up is the easy part to explain. I’ll get to that in a few. But where prices are up is following some interesting non-patterns.

Upperville, Marshall & The Plains are on FIRE

Would you believe me if I said that prices in The Plains were up 60% over last year?  The median price of homes sold in The Plains is currently $1.63M so far this year. Marshall prices are up 17%, with the median price at $712,000. Hold on to your wallets, Upperville is up 90% over last year, with a closed median price of $1.1M.

While we thought we saw the end of that mad rush to rural areas once Covid passed, there is still interest in having more land, more space and having those neighbors a little farther away than arm’s length. We are seeing the same trend in Maryland too. The movement to Annapolis, Potomac and Gaithersburg is up, as are the prices.

Why Do Home Prices Always Go Up in Northern Virginia?

The higher end of the market is moving along at a decent rate right now. The people who have money are spending it on housing.

What about everyone who is not a 1%-er? What is happening in Northern Virginia to support this demand? There are tons of businesses here. It’s not just downtown DC where people commute to. Tyson’s Corner is a huge employment area as well as the Dulles/Reston/Sterling Tech Corridor. There are over 800 companies in Northern Virginia. There are two dozen Fortune 500 companies here and a significant presence of Fortune 1000 companies. Dozens of Corporate Headquarters are here as well – Nestle, Mars, Five Guys, Capital One, E-Trade, Freddie Mac, Amazon, Motley Fool, Hilton, Sunrise Senior Living, Boeing.

Another reason is that the public schools in Northern Virginia are among the most highly regarded in the country. Where Fairfax County Virginia schools were often neck-in-neck with Montgomery County Maryland schools, it feels very much as though Fairfax has a massive lead on that battle. It’s less about Fairfax just advancing ahead and more that Montgomery County made some major missteps in the past few years. They are working hard on change, but there hasn’t been enough positive change being reported. Those missteps resulted in the Montgomery County Maryland school budget being cut by 10% of what was requested. Then, there are lawsuits…so, still lots of drama and fallout. Northern Virginia Schools are just faring much better.

What Could DOGE Layoffs Do to the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?

While there are many dozens of Government Contractor Groups here, the estimates are that about 11,000 jobs were cut due to DOGE. Another 10,000 jobs could be on the line. Virginia’s unemployment has risen for the past six months since the beginning of 2025, but it currently stands at 3.5%. If you don’t recall from your Economics Classes, 4% is considered “full employment.” So, while the headlines are bleak, and there are tons of gloom and doomers, does this sound terrible to you? 

Let’s do some quick math. There are 11,000 people whose jobs were cut. Let’s estimate that 70% of them owned their homes, that’s 7700 homeowners without adjusting for two-income couples who may have both been downsized. Now let’s say that 1/3 of the 7700 people decide to move out of the area. That would be 2600 homes potentially up for sale.  

Right now, in all of Northern Virginia, the total number of homes for sale including condos and single family homes is just under 3500. How many homes were sold in the past 30 days? 2200. How about the last 60 days? Over 4800. At this rate, we have less than six weeks of supply! Considering six months is a balanced market, this isn’t good. It’s still a seller’s market. If you add in the 2600 from possible DOGE people who sell and move out of the area, we would have 6100 homes up for sale. That would give us about two and a half month’s supply. Still not a buyer’s market.

I want to be a realist though and not gloss over what’s happening. The departments that have seen the biggest cuts are Defense, Agriculture and Treasury. Future cuts are still expected in Defense as well as Veterans Affairs. Cuts are indeed happening to various government and contractor jobs. But it has not had anywhere near the catastrophic results some people would have you believe. So stop believing the Gloom and Doomers, the people who have been calling for a housing crash for the past decade and the scary faces alongside the headlines. Multiple offers are still the norm for well-priced, well-located homes with current updates in Arlington, McLean, Vienna, Oakton, Falls Church and then in the ex-urbs of Upperville and The Plains.